Prospects for India-Pakistan trade

The India-Pakistan trade is estimated to be of the order of $2 billion per year; experts think that if trade were conducted under WTO rules, it could easily expand to $40 billion per year.   However, Pakistan has been hesitating; part of the reason is fear of being overwhelmed by India.

In my opinion, the window for opening up trade while Pakistan still has some competitive advantages over India is rapidly passing.

In 2010, Pakistan ranked 85th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index; India ranked 133rd.
In 2015, Pakistan ranked 138th, India ranked 130th -- and the report cut-off date for data was even while GOI was in the process of simplifying regulations, for e.g., start up of a business.

The best time to open up for trade for two economies is, IMO, while the smaller/weaker one still has some competitive advantages. That window has passed, I think; in particular, the current Government of India is very keen on climbing up these competitive rankings, and so Pakistan will find it hard to keep up.

Najam Sethi on a Liberal Pakistan

Sounds too good to be true!

Now, thankfully, positive change is in the air. Nawaz Sharif was handpicked and nurtured by the military three decades ago to do its bidding. He duly became the nemesis of the PPP, in the bargain getting into bed with the religious parties, passing Islamic laws and promoting jihad against India. Now he is all for peace with India, wants to stop all jihad across borders, is waking up to action against sectarian parties and religious terrorists and is embarrassed and hampered by the Islamic laws passed on his watch. The military, no less, sees the primary and immediate national security threat as emanating from internal religious extremism and not externally from archenemy India. Unfortunately, however, Imran Khan’s PTI is still muddying the waters by continuing to resist the development of a new national narrative of state and society based on modern notions of liberal and secular democracy.

"Liberal" heartburn

Nadeem F. Paracha is a good writer, e.g., read his Storming heaven: A revolt in Makkah and is also what would count as a liberal in Pakistan.  That doesn't prevent him from having heartburn caused by progress in India.   Very much like Governor of Punjab Salman Taseer, who was liberal enough and lost his life for criticizing Pakistan's blasphemy law, but had heartburn because of India's space program.  (Taseer's Indian son, Aatish, explained this phenomenon in a Wall Street Journal article - it stems from Pakistan's existential confusion.)

Pakistan's CNIC: cannot exit Islam

Pakistan has a national identity card (CNIC - Computerized National Identity Card).

A checklist for applicants for the card, or for those who have a card but need to make changes, is available here from a Govt. of Pakistan website.  (PDF)
https://www.nadra.gov.pk/docs/cnic_checklist.pdf

For a modification in CNIC, due to change in religion, there is a note:

Note: Change of religion from ISLAM to any other religion will not be entertained.

Why blame Zia alone?

Salman Zafar has a newspaper blog article that points out that the rot in Pakistan long precedes General Zia-ul-Haq, whom it is fashionable nowadays, to blame for Pakistan's ills.

These include the Objectives Resolution, 1949, which bound state and religion together; the Doctrine of Necessity, 1954, that enabled constitutional processes to be broken at will; the One Unit program, 1954, that made West Pakistan into one province to try to match East Pakistan; the Constitution of 1956, that made Pakistan into an Islamic Republic, and gave the President the right to declare emergency; the first coup of 1958; the Constitution of 1962 that set up the Council of Islamic Ideology; the unequal treatment of East Pakistan that created massive unrest 1965-1970; the denial of the right of the East Pakistan based Awami League to form the government after it won the elections; the genocide during the Bangladesh Liberation War of 1971; the second amendment to the Constitution of 1973 that declared Ahmadis as non-Muslims.

Pakistan by the numbers

Via tradingeconomics.com: Pakistan's Debt-to-GDP ratio:

Pakistan's External Debt:

External Debt in Pakistan decreased to 62649 USD Million in the first quarter of 2015 from 63960 USD Million in the fourth quarter of 2014. External Debt in Pakistan averaged 49206.62 USD Million from 2002 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 66490 USD Million in the third quarter of 2011 and a record low of 33172 USD Million in the third quarter of 2004. External Debt in Pakistan is reported by the State Bank of Pakistan.

The external debt fell under Musharraf not because of any great policies he had. PS: Academic paper from 2001: (PDF) http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2001/Volume4/689-704.pdf

Recently, debt of amount USD 3.8 billion is rescheduled in 1999–2001. After September 11, Paris club rescheduled bilateral debt of USD 12.5 billion and time period is 38 years.

Pakistan's total external debt at the time was around $38 billion. Pakistan's Annual GDP growth rate:

Limits of self-criticism

Kaalchakra wrote in a comment on pakteahouse.net, about the boundaries within which Pakistanis must remain:

“One can ‘criticise’ Pakistan, and promote ‘self-introspection’. But to not fall “beyond the pale” one must offer ‘solutions’ that call for at least one of the following three –

(1) more Pakistani military, to protect Pakistan against a rapacious India

(2) more Islam, to save Pakistan against the ill effects of Hinduism

(3) more Jinnah, to make Pakistan different from what Hindu/Gandhian leadership would want it to be.

The less a person buys into this living TNT as Pakistan’s universe of solutions, the more unacceptable/sell out the person becomes.”

(TNT = Two-Nation Theory)