Pakistan Census 2017

Provisional census results put Pakistan’s population at 207.774 million

Shown below are the Pakistan census results over the years (the dots) and the low(blue), red(high) and constant-fertility(green) variants of the United Nations population projects for Pakistan made in 2012.

 
 Pakistan's annual population growth rate is said to be 2% - 2.4%.
(2% comes from the Google compilation of data as the rate in 2016; 2.4% is the growth rate averaged from 1998 to 2017.)

At a 2% growth rate, and at 207.774 million in 2017, Pakistan in 2020 will be 220.5 million strong. This is above the constant-fertility variant of the 2012 UN population projection.


The 2012 UN table is here:

Low variant		High variant		Constant-fertility variant
Year	Value	Year	Value	Year	Value
1950	37542	1950	37542	1950	37542
1955	41109	1955	41109	1955	41109
1960	45920	1960	45920	1960	45920
1965	51993	1965	51993	1965	51993
1970	59383	1970	59383	1970	59383
1975	68483	1975	68483	1975	68483
1980	80493	1980	80493	1980	80493
1985	95470	1985	95470	1985	95470
1990	111845	1990	111845	1990	111845
1995	127347	1995	127347	1995	127347
2000	144522	2000	144522	2000	144522
2005	158645	2005	158645	2005	158645
2010	173593	2010	173593	2010	173593
2015	187919	2015	191378	2015	192422
2020	200540	2020	210189	2020	213758
2025	211629	2025	229589	2025	237213
2030	221103	2030	247779	2030	261599
2035	228766	2035	264967	2035	287169
2040	234396	2040	281781	2040	314904
2045	237695	2045	298374	2045	345569
2050	238538	2050	314272	2050	379242
2055	237045	2055	328856	2055	415670
2060	233311	2060	341769	2060	454747
2065	227493	2065	353298	2065	496968
2070	219755	2070	363895	2070	543245
2075	210376	2075	373869	2075	594497
2080	199757	2080	383325	2080	651358
2085	188372	2085	392285	2085	714296
2090	176629	2090	400837	2090	783759
2095	164873	2095	409175	2095	860368
2100	153363	2100	417464	2100	944843

Pakistan population projections

The preliminary count of population from all the land areas controlled by Pakistan as per the abandoned Pakistan census of 2011 was 197 million, per leaked preliminary figures.

In 2017, a census was conducted and the results were to be released July 31st or so.  However, after Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had to resign over corruption charges, the release of the census figures is in doubt, it may be November.   What we know of the census is

Census Coordinator Habibullah Khattak told BBC {Urdu} in an interview that the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) {had completed the census process and that} the country’s population can be between 210 to 220 million

The last completed census of Pakistan was in 1998, which showed a population of 130.9 million.

The chart below shows population projections from the United Nations from 2012, plus the Pakistan actual figures up to 1998, and the 2011 and 2017 census leaks.  The 2017 range of 210-220 million is shown as two dots.

As is dismaying clear, Pakistan continues to range above the constant fertility population projection.

Census: Preliminary : Pakistan population > 192M

(Click on the image for a larger version)
Sources of data:
http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm
http://www.pap.org.pk/statistics/population.htm#tab1.3
and below.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-13-13514-Population-shoots-up-by-47-percent-since-1998

That Pakistan's population is 192+ million is supposedly the preliminary count from the 2011 census.  The previous census was in 1998, when the population was 131 million.    If these figures are correct (but every figure from Pakistan needs to be taken with a degree of skepticism), the experts been greatly mis-estimating Pakistan's population growth rate.

For instance, the World Bank lists for Pakistan, Population, total (2010, estimated) 173,593,383.

The UN estimates were:

Year	Value
1995	127,347,000
2000	144,522,000
2005	158,645,000
2010	173,593,000
2015	189,648,000

and so on. 
 http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm
There are low, medium, high, and constant fertility population projections available there for all countries, including Pakistan.  Even in the high projection, Pakistan reaches 191 million only in 2015.

The constant fertility projection is as follows, which means that fertility in Pakistan can only be increasing - i.e., more surviving children per woman.

Year  Pop('000s)
1995    127347
2000    144522
2005    158645
2010    173593
2015    192422
2020    213758
2025    237213
2030    261599
2035    287169
2040    314904
2045    345569
2050    379242