Friday, March 30, 2012

Census: Preliminary : Pakistan population > 192M

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Sources of data:
and below.

That Pakistan's population is 192+ million is supposedly the preliminary count from the 2011 census.  The previous census was in 1998, when the population was 131 million.    If these figures are correct (but every figure from Pakistan needs to be taken with a degree of skepticism), the experts been greatly mis-estimating Pakistan's population growth rate.

For instance, the World Bank lists for Pakistan, Population, total (2010, estimated) 173,593,383.

The UN estimates were:

           Year       Value
1995  127,347,000
2000 144,522,000
2005 158,645,000
2010 173,593,000
2015 189,648,000

and so on.
There are low, medium, high, and constant fertility population projections available there for all countries, including Pakistan.  Even in the high projection, Pakistan reaches 191 million only in 2015.

The constant fertility projection is as follows, which means that fertility in Pakistan can only be increasing - i.e., more surviving children per woman.

Year  Pop('000s)
1995    127347
2000    144522
2005    158645
2010    173593
2015    192422
2020    213758
2025    237213
2030    261599
2035    287169
2040    314904
2045    345569
2050    379242

LAHORE: Balochistan witnessed the highest and the Punjab the lowest increase in population from 1998 to 2011, with the country's overall population shooting up to an alarming 46.9 percent.
Households witnessed an increase of 50.4 percent during the period, according to preliminary results of housing listing 2011.

As compared to the population of 130,857,717 in 1998, the overall population was recorded at 192,288,944 in 2011 all over Pakistan, excluding three districts of Balochistan (Khuzdar, Kech and Panjgur) Agency of Fata (South Waziristan) as well as Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJ&K) and Gilgit-Baltistan.

However, with the inclusion of population of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan, the population of the country would reach 197,361,691 in 2011 against 134,714,017 in 1998, showing an increase of 46.5 percent.

The highest increase in population was witnessed in Balochistan, followed by Sindh, Fata, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the federal capital while the Punjab province witnessed the lowest increase in population as compared to the other provinces.

In terms of percentage, the highest 139.3 percent increase in population was witnessed in Balochistan (from 5,501,164 to 13,162,222) followed by Sindh where the population increased by 81.5 percent (from 30,439,893 to 55,245,497).

Similarly, the population of Fata has increased by 62.1 percent (from 2,746,490 to 4,452,913), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa by 51.6 percent (from 17,743,645 to 26,896,829), federal capital Islamabad by 43 percent (from 805,235 to 1,151,868) while the population of Punjab witnessed the lowest 24.1 percent increase (from 73,621,290 to 91,379,615).

The population of Azad Jammu and Kashmir witnessedan increase of just 1.54 percent from 2,972,501 in 1998 to 3,631,224 in 2001 whereas the population of Gilgit Baltistan increased by 63.1 percent from 883,799 to 1,441,523.

On the other hand, the number of households throughout the country increased from 18,934,880 in 1998 to 28,478,642 in 2011, showing an increase of 50.4 percent.

The highest increase of 109.2 percent in households was witnessed in Balochistan where the number of households increased from 760,633 to 1,609,995, followed by Sindh where the households increased from 4,997,134 to 9,191,907, showing an increase of 83.5 percent.

The number of households in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa increased by 45.8 percent (from 2,210,455 to 3,223,371), followed by the federal capital, Islamabad, where the number of households increased by 36.9 percent from (128,753 to 176,280).

Similarly, the number of households in the Punjab increased from 10,537,323 to 13,911,812 (32 percent) whereas in Fata the households increased from 291,582 to 365,277 (25.3%).

In the AJK, the number of households increased by 38.1 percent from 406,033 to 560,720 and in Gilgit Baltistan by 49.9 percent from 109,318 to 163,887.

As far as population proportion is concerned, 13.99 percent of the total population of the country has been reported in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in 2011, 2.32 in Fata, 47.52 in the Punjab, 28.73 percent in Sindh, 6.85 percent in Balochistan and 0.60 percent in Islamabad.

According to the 1998 census, the population in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was 13.41 percent of the total population, 2.40 percent in Fata, 55.60 percent in the Punjab, 22.9 percent in Sindh, 4.9 percent in Balochistan and 0.6 percent in Islamabad, the data revealed.

According to data, average household size has decreased from 6.9 in 1998 to 6.8 in 2011.The average of household size decreased from 7.0 to 6.6 in the Punjab, from 6.1 to 6.0 in Sindh.

However, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, it increased from 8.0 in 1998 to 8.3, in Fata from 9.4 to 12.2, in Balochistan from 7.1 to 8.2 whereas the average household size increased from 6.3 to 6.5 in capital Islamabad.

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