Saturday, March 30, 2019

The World Bank tries to teach Pakistanis

 It is a hopeless task, but the World Bank tries.
This comic book: Aaj Kal Ka Zamana (PDF file)




Wednesday, March 27, 2019

Pakistan - World Happiness Report 2019

There is an outfit that publishes the World Happiness Report.  The primary measure is the "Cantril Life Ladder" (from Hadley Cantril, Patterns of Human Concern, 1965).

As far as I can tell, some 1000-odd people of age 15+  in each of 156 to 158 countries are asked by Gallup polling each year the following question, which in English reads:
“Please imagine a ladder, with steps numbered from 0 at the bottom to 10 at the top. The top of the ladder represents the best possible life for you and the bottom of the ladder represents the worst possible life for you. On which step of the ladder would you say you personally feel you stand at this time?”
The average for the country is supposed to reflect its level of happiness. The report also includes measures that one might think affects the answers given on the Cantril Life Ladder, such as per capita income and life expectancy, and survey measures such as perceived freedom to make life choices, perceived corruption, and so on.

Pakistan's scores on the Cantril Life Ladder are shown below, and the world rank, out of some 156 countries, in the report issued in the next calendar year.



---
GWP = Gallup Worldwide Polling
waves = rounds of polling
Data and captions taken from the World Happiness Report 2019.


GDP per capita is in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) adjusted to constant 2011 international dollars, taken from the World Development Indicators (WDI) released by the World Bank on November 14, 2018.  The equation uses the natural log of GDP per capita, as this form fits the data significantly better than GDP per capita.



The time series of healthy life expectancy at birth are constructed based on data from the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Health Observatory data repository, with data available for 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2016. To match this report’s sample period, interpolation and extrapolation are used.



Social support is the national average of the binary responses (either 0 or 1) to the Gallup World Poll (GWP) question “If you were in trouble, do you have relatives or friends you can count onto help you whenever you need them, or not?”


Freedom to make life choices is the national average of binary responses to the GWP question “Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with your freedom to choose what you do with your life?”


Generosity is the residual of regressing the national average of GWP responses to the question “Have you donated money to a charity in the past month?” on GDP per capita.

Perceptions of corruption are the average of binary answers to two GWP questions: “Is corruption widespread throughout the government or not?” and “Is corruption widespread within businesses or not?” Where data for government corruption are missing, the perception of business corruption is used as the overall corrup- tion-perception measure.


Positive affect is defined as the average of previous-day affect measures for happiness, laughter, and enjoyment for GWP waves 3-7 (years 2008 to 2012, and some in 2013). It is defined as the average of laughter and enjoyment for other waves where the happiness question was not asked. The general form for the affect questions is: Did you experience the following feelings during a lot of the day yesterday?

Negative affect is defined as the average of previous-day affect measures for worry, sadness, and anger for all waves.


Saturday, March 23, 2019

It's the economy, stupid!

Ali Hasanain writes in the Dawn:

In the five-decade period between 1963 and 2002, India generally grew slower than Pakistan, yet there were six instances of India’s annual economic growth exceeding the size of Pakistan’s entire economy.

More worryingly for the strategist, in the 15 years since 2003, India has achieved this feat nine times.

and

Simply to return to our relative strength with respect to India to 1990 levels, we need to grow at an average of 10pc for the next 30 years — achievable, but a feat accomplished only by Ireland, China and Vietnam in the past.

The key out of this mess lies in understanding that this is as much a story of our stagnation as it is of India’s rise. Since the 1980s, every major South Asian economy has improved its citizens’ health, and since 1990 its wealth, faster than Pakistan.

Friday, March 1, 2019

AMRAAM - Pakistani or Taiwanese?





The Express Tribune of Pakistan:

The wreckage displayed by the Indian generals identified the missile as an AIM-120C-5 AMRAAM. Markings on the wreckage also identified the contract serial number of the missile as FA8675-05-C-0070.
They then note that “Report to Congress on Department Of Defense Sales of Significant Military Equipment to Foreign Entities Fiscal Year 2009” lists AMRAAM sales to Taiwan under this contract number.

The problem is that they should have looked at  “DoD FY 2006 & 2007 Sales of Significant Military Equipment to Foreign Entities" available on this US Department of Defense site.

Raytheon seems to have had a multi-year contract FA8675-05-C-0070 for supply of arms to both Taiwan and Pakistan.

Page 8 of Attachment 2 is reproduced here, with highlighting added:



PS: On twitter, Jatish Tyagi (@JatishTyagi) posted this image, for which the source is here. Note the highlights.


The key paragraph reads:

Raytheon Co., Tucson, Ariz., is being awarded a $269,646,834 firm-fixed-price contract modification. This action is exercising an option to purchase 500 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) Air Vehicles (AAVs) Air Intercept Missile (AIM) – 120C-5 missiles and rehost. This effort supports foreign military sales to Pakistan 100%. At this time, total funds have been obligated. This work will be complete April 2011. Headquarters Medium Range Missile Systems Group, Eglin Air Force Base, Fla., is the contracting activity (FA8675-05-C-0070/P00028). 
Also note this February 13, 2006 notice from the same source, with the contract number FA8675-05-C-0070:
Raytheon Co. Missile Systems, Tucson, Ariz., was awarded on 28 December 2005, a $50,739,270 firm fixed price contract modification to provide for 102 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile Air Vehicles under the foreign military sales program for the following countries:  Czech Republic, Hungary, Jordan, Malaysia, and Canada.  Total funds have been obligated.  This work will be complete in July 2008.  Headquarters Medium Range Missile Systems Group, Eglin Air Force Base, Fla., is the contracting activity (FA8675-05-C-0070/P00016)