Sunday, December 31, 2017

Gandhi on exemplars of simplicity

In Harijan of July 17, 1937, Mahatma Gandhi wrote about what he hoped for from the Congress ministries that were assuming office in the various provincial governments.  Excerpt {highlights added}

Then the personal behaviour of Ministers. How will Congress Ministers discharge themselves? Their Chief, the Presidentt of the Congress, travels third class. Will they travel first? The President is satisfied with a coarse khadi dhoti, Kurta and waistcoat. Will the Ministers require the Western style and expenditure on Western scale? Congressmen have for the past seventeen years disciplined themselves in rigorous simplicity. The nation will expect the Ministers to introduce simplicity in the administration of their Provinces. They will not be ashamed of it, they will be proud of it. We are the poorest nation on earth, many millions living in semi-starvation. Its representatives dare not live in a style and manner out of all correspondence with their electors. The Englishmen coming as conquerors and rulers set up a standard of living which took no account whatsoever of the helpless conquered. If the Ministers will simply refrain from copying the Governors and the secured Civil Service, they will have shown the marked contrast that exists between the Congress mentality and theirs. Truly there can be no partnership between them and us even as there can be none between a giant and a dwarf.

Lest Congressmen should think that they have a monopoly of simplicity and that they erred in 1920 in doing away with the trousers and the chair, let me cite the examples of Aboobaker and Omar. Rama and Krishna are prehistoric names. I may not use these names as examples. History tells us of Pratap and Shivaji living in uttermost simplicity. But opinion may be divided as to what they did when they had power. There is no division of opinion about the Prophet, Aboobaker and Omar. They had the riches of the world at their feet. It will be difficult to find a historical parallel to match their rigorous life. Omar would not brook the idea of his lieutenants in distant provinces using anything but coarse cloth and coarse flour. The Congress Ministers, if they will retain the simplicity and economy they have inherited since 1920, will save thousands of rupees, will give hope to the poor and probably change the tone of the Services. It is hardly necessary for me to point out that simplicity does not mean shoddiness. There is a beauty and an art in simplicity which he who runs may see. It does not require money to be neat, clean and dignified. Pomp and pageantry are often synonymous with vulgarity.
Why is this relevant?

The claim is made: {highlights added}
The so called letter to Pir of Manki Sharif by Jinnah which Dr Ishtiaq Ahmed has quoted throughout his academic career is based entirely on Maulana Shabbir Ahmad Usmani’s speech delivered on March 9th 1949, long after Jinnah was dead and unable to contradict the Maulana’s point of view. It is an alleged excerpt which seems to promise Shariat from an undated letter, which does not occur in any primary source document. The same four lines of the letter were reproduced as part of the “Quaid-e-Azam Jinnah’s Correspondence” compiled by Syed Sharifuddin Pirzada, whose very association with Jinnah has been suspect and whose role as the establishment’s go to guy is well known. My conclusion, having seen how Jinnah’s statements have been manufactured over the last 70 years by unscrupulous individuals on the right wing in our state is that we cannot admit this as evidence so long as we have the original in a verified primary source. In the same speech, Maulana Usmani claims that Gandhi advised Congress ministers to follow the example of Hazrat Umar (RA) and Hazrat Abu Bakr (RA) in 1937 and 1938. No such reference exists in the 90 volumes of Collected Works of Mahatma Gandhi either.
The claim made by Maulana Usmani that Gandhi advised Congress ministers to follow the example of Umar and Abu Bakr is correct.

Friday, September 1, 2017

Pakistan Census 2017

Provisional census results put Pakistan’s population at 207.774 million

Shown below are the Pakistan census results over the years (the dots) and the low(blue), red(high) and constant-fertility(green) variants of the United Nations population projects for Pakistan made in 2012.

 Pakistan's annual population growth rate is said to be 2% - 2.4%.
(2% comes from the Google compilation of data as the rate in 2016; 2.4% is the growth rate averaged from 1998 to 2017.)

At a 2% growth rate, and at 207.774 million in 2017, Pakistan in 2020 will be 220.5 million strong. This is above the constant-fertility variant of the 2012 UN population projection.

The 2012 UN table is here:
Low variant High variant Constant-fertility variant
Year Value Year Value Year Value
1950 37542 1950 37542 1950 37542
1955 41109 1955 41109 1955 41109
1960 45920 1960 45920 1960 45920
1965 51993 1965 51993 1965 51993
1970 59383 1970 59383 1970 59383
1975 68483 1975 68483 1975 68483
1980 80493 1980 80493 1980 80493
1985 95470 1985 95470 1985 95470
1990 111845 1990 111845 1990 111845
1995 127347 1995 127347 1995 127347
2000 144522 2000 144522 2000 144522
2005 158645 2005 158645 2005 158645
2010 173593 2010 173593 2010 173593
2015 187919 2015 191378 2015 192422
2020 200540 2020 210189 2020 213758
2025 211629 2025 229589 2025 237213
2030 221103 2030 247779 2030 261599
2035 228766 2035 264967 2035 287169
2040 234396 2040 281781 2040 314904
2045 237695 2045 298374 2045 345569
2050 238538 2050 314272 2050 379242
2055 237045 2055 328856 2055 415670
2060 233311 2060 341769 2060 454747
2065 227493 2065 353298 2065 496968
2070 219755 2070 363895 2070 543245
2075 210376 2075 373869 2075 594497
2080 199757 2080 383325 2080 651358
2085 188372 2085 392285 2085 714296
2090 176629 2090 400837 2090 783759
2095 164873 2095 409175 2095 860368
2100 153363 2100 417464 2100 944843

Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Pakistan population projections

The preliminary count of population from all the land areas controlled by Pakistan as per the abandoned Pakistan census of 2011 was 197 million, per leaked preliminary figures.

In 2017, a census was conducted and the results were to be released July 31st or so.  However, after Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had to resign over corruption charges, the release of the census figures is in doubt, it may be November.   What we know of the census is

Census Coordinator Habibullah Khattak told BBC {Urdu} in an interview that the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) {had completed the census process and that} the country’s population can be between 210 to 220 million

The last completed census of Pakistan was in 1998, which showed a population of 130.9 million.

The chart below shows population projections from the United Nations from 2012, plus the Pakistan actual figures up to 1998, and the 2011 and 2017 census leaks.  The 2017 range of 210-220 million is shown as two dots.

As is dismaying clear, Pakistan continues to range above the constant fertility population projection.

Sunday, May 28, 2017

Pakistan Census 2017 - population 210-220 million

The data gathering for Pakistan's census 2017 has completed; the first official numbers are expected by July.  However back in 2011-12, the data was gathered, a preliminary figure of 192 million was rumored, and then the census was abandoned.  So it remains to be seen if this census will be more successful.

Already, the news is  "Initial estimates after Census 2017 put population at 21-22 crores", i.e., 210-220 million.   The Pakistan Economic Survey 2016-17 from the Finance Ministry of Pakistan puts the population of Pakistan at 199.71 million.

The 2015 United Nations projections with various assumptions give the following estimates for Pakistan's population in 2017:

Variant                          Population
Low                               196.217 million
Medium                         196.744 million
High                               197.272 million
Constant Fertility          197.315 million

Another way of looking at it is that per the constant fertility projection, Pakistan was to reach 214 million in 2020.  So the rumors today, like in 2012, suggest that the official numbers are a gross underestimate.


Saturday, January 28, 2017

1940: Ahmadi membership in the Muslim League

From "Punjab Politics 1940-1943 Strains of War : Governors' Fortnightly Reports and other Key Documents", compiled and edited by Lionel Carter.

Letter from Sir Henry Craik, Governor of Punjab, to the Viceroy, the Marquess of Linlithgow, March 25, 1940, excerpt:

4. I had an interesting talk this morning with Pir Akbar Ali, a Unionist member of our Assembly, who belongs to the Ahmaddiya community.  He was not present at the Subjects Committee meeting on Saturday night when Sikander* made his long speech, but had been told by some of those who had heard it that it was most impressive.  He was present at the open session last night and told me that there was no hostile demonstration against Sikander.  This is not altogether confirmed by Bourne's information; but it is certainly correct that the atmosphere last night was much better than on the previous day.

Pir Akbar Ali gave me two items of information which may interest you.   The Ahmadis, he said, have always considered the Khaksar movement a dangerous one and not a single Ahmadi has joined it.   The second item was that Ahmadis as a body have not been allowed by the religious head of their movement to join the Muslim League.  Akbar Ali himself has been allowed to join as a member of the Unionist Party for a term of six months only.   The question of whether his followers should be allowed to join the League is, I understand, shortly to be considered by the head of the community.

* Sir Sikander Hyat Khan, Premier of Punjab Province.