Friday, March 30, 2012

Census: Preliminary : Pakistan population > 192M

(Click on the image for a larger version)
Sources of data:
and below.

That Pakistan's population is 192+ million is supposedly the preliminary count from the 2011 census.  The previous census was in 1998, when the population was 131 million.    If these figures are correct (but every figure from Pakistan needs to be taken with a degree of skepticism), the experts been greatly mis-estimating Pakistan's population growth rate.

For instance, the World Bank lists for Pakistan, Population, total (2010, estimated) 173,593,383.

The UN estimates were:

           Year       Value
1995  127,347,000
2000 144,522,000
2005 158,645,000
2010 173,593,000
2015 189,648,000

and so on.
There are low, medium, high, and constant fertility population projections available there for all countries, including Pakistan.  Even in the high projection, Pakistan reaches 191 million only in 2015.

The constant fertility projection is as follows, which means that fertility in Pakistan can only be increasing - i.e., more surviving children per woman.

Year  Pop('000s)
1995    127347
2000    144522
2005    158645
2010    173593
2015    192422
2020    213758
2025    237213
2030    261599
2035    287169
2040    314904
2045    345569
2050    379242

Friday, March 23, 2012

Pakistan Day

There has been some controversy in the Pakistan press about just when Pakistan Day began to be celebrated.  The correct answer is that Pakistan Day was celebrated March 23, 1941 and every year since till 1947 as the anniversary of the Lahore Resolution.  I do not know if Pakistan Day was observed in 1948. (Jinnah was in East Pakistan arguing with them about Bengali and other issues.)

Photographs of the source documents are below the fold.  Clicking on them should lead you to flickr, where larger sizes should be available. One day, I may transcribe them.

Note: 1942 is the only case where we can quibble about whether "Pakistan Day" is inferred from the date rather than from Jinnah's statements.

Sunday, March 4, 2012

Ishtiaq Ahmed: What's inside Muslim minds

Distinguished Pakistani sociologist Professor Emeritus Riaz Hassan has undertaken one of the most extensive studies of the religious consciousness of Muslims: Inside the Muslim Minds (Melbourne University Press, 2008). It has recently been published under the title Muslim Zehn from Lahore (Mashaal Books, February 2012).It covers seven countries — Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Iran and Turkey — and is based on the evidence of 6,390 Muslim respondents. The research was conducted in cooperation with research institutes in the respective countries. The themes include issues of personal piety, conscience, philanthropy and social justice, veiling, blasphemy, hudood laws, jihad, political order and religious institutions, globalisation and the Islamic ummah, Islam and civil society, mutual suspicions between Muslims and the West. The author has adhered to the highest standards of honest and qualified research. The result is a mine of information and profound insights. He makes it clear at the outset that multiple meanings and interpretations of Islam are possible. The two main interpretative approaches he identifies are those of the apologists who strive to reconcile Islam with modernity and the Islamists who fiercely oppose it. It is the latter’s influence that has been growing currently and the book highlights the problematic aspects of this.