Showing posts sorted by date for query population. Sort by relevance Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by date for query population. Sort by relevance Show all posts

Sunday, September 13, 2026

Prescience

 Margaret Bourke-White, Halfway to Freedom  : A Report on the New India, Simon and Schuster, New York, 1949.


Pakistan was one month old. Karachi was its mushrooming capital. On the sandy fringes of the city an enormous tent colony had grown up to house the influx of minor government officials. There was only one major government official, Mohamed Ali Jinnah, and there was no need for Jinnah to take to a tent. The huge marble and sandstone Government House, vacated by British officialdom, was waiting. The Quaid-i-Azam moved in, with his sister, Fatima, as hostess. Mr. Jinnah had put on what his critics called his “triple crown”: he had made himself Governor-General; he was retaining the presidency of the Muslim League — now Pakistan’s only political party; and he was president of the country’s lawmaking body, the Constituent Assembly.

“We never expected to get it so soon,” Miss Fatima said when I called. “We never expected to get it in our lifetimes.”

If Fatima’s reaction was a glow of family pride, her brother’s was a fever of ecstasy. Jinnah’s deep-sunk eyes were pinpoints of excitement. His whole manner indicated that an almost overwhelming exaltation was racing through his veins. I had murmured some words of congratulation on his achievement in creating the world’s largest Islamic nation.

“Oh, it’s not just the largest Islamic nation. Pakistan is the fifth-largest nation in the world!”

The note of personal triumph was so unmistakable that I wondered how much thought he gave to the human cost: more Muslim lives had been sacrificed to create the new Muslim homeland than America, for example, had lost during the entire Second World War I hoped he had a constructive plan for the seventy million citizens of Pakistan. What kind of constitution did he intend to draw up?

 ***

 What plans did he have for the industrial development of the country? Did he hope to enlist technical or financial assistance from America?

“America needs Pakistan more than Pakistan needs America,” was Jinnah’s reply. “Pakistan is the pivot of the world, as we are placed” — he revolved his long forefinger in bony circles — “the frontier on which the future position of the world revolves.” He leaned toward me, dropping his voice to a confidential note. “Russia,” confided Mr. Jinnah “is not so very far away.”

I wondered whether the Quaid-i-Azam considered his new state only as an armoured buffer between opposing major powers. He was stressing America’s military interest in other parts of the world. “America is now awakened,” he said with a satisfied smile. Since the United States was now bolstering up Greece and Turkey, she should be much more interested in pouring money and arms into Pakistan. “If Russia walks in here,” he concluded, “the whole world is menaced.”

In the weeks to come I was to hear the Quaid-i-Azam’s thesis echoed by government officials throughout Pakistan. “Surely America will build up our army,” they would say to me. “Surely America will give us loans to keep Russia from walking in.” But when I asked whether there were any signs of Russian infiltration, they would reply almost sadly, as though sorry not to be able to make more of the argument. “No, Russia has shown no signs of being interested in Pakistan.”

This hope of tapping the U. S. Treasury was voiced so persistently that one wondered whether the purpose was to bolster the world against Bolshevism or to bolster Pakistan’s own uncertain position as a new political entity. Actually, I think, it was more nearly related to the even more significant bankruptcy of ideas in the new Muslim state — a nation drawing its spurious warmth from the embers of an antique religious fanaticism, fanned into a new blaze.

Jinnah’s most frequently used technique in the struggle for his new nation had been the playing of opponent against opponent. Evidently this technique was now to be extended into foreign policy. ….

 ***

 Jinnah revived the moribund Muslim League in 1936 after it had dragged through an anemic thirty years’ existence, and took to the religious soapbox. He began dinning into the ears of millions of Muslims the claim that they were downtrodden solely because of Hindu domination.

During the years directly preceding this move on his part, an unprecedented degree of unity had developed between Muslims and Hindus in their struggle for independence from the British Raj. The British feared this unity, and used their divide-and-rule tactics to disrupt it. Certain highly placed Indians also feared unity, dreading a popular movement which would threaten their special position. Then another decisive factor arose. Although Hindus had always been ahead of Muslims in the industrial sphere, the great Muslim feudal landlords now had aspirations toward industry. From these wealthy Muslims, who resented the well-established Hindu competition, Jinnah drew his powerful supporters.

One wonders whether Jinnah was fighting to free downtrodden Muslims from domination or merely to gain an earmarked area, free from competition, for this small and wealthy clan.

The trend of events in Pakistan would support the theory that Jinnah carried the banner of the Muslim landed aristocracy, rather than that of the Muslim masses he claimed to champion. There was no hint of personal material gain in this. Jinnah was known to be personally incorruptible. The drive for personal wealth played no part in his politics. It was a drive for power. ..

 ***

 With his burning devotion to his separate Islamic nation, Jinnah had taken all these formidable obstacles in his stride. But the blow that finally broke his spirit struck at the very name of Pakistan. While the literal meaning of the name is “Land of the Pure,” the word is a compound of initial letters of the Muslim majority provinces which Jinnah had expected to incorporate: P for the Punjab, A for the Afghans’ area on the Northwest Frontier, S for Sind, -tan for Baluchistan. But the K was missing.

Kashmir, India’s largest princely state, despite its 77 per cent Muslim population, had not fallen into the arms of Pakistan by the sheer weight of religious majority. Kashmir had acceded to India, and although it was now the scene of an undeclared war between the two nations, the fitting of the K into Pakistan was left in doubt. With the beginning of this torturing anxiety over Kashmir, the Quaid-i-Azam’s siege of bad colds began, and then his dismaying withdrawal into himself. ….

Later, reflecting on what I had seen, I decided that this desperation was due to causes far deeper than anxiety over Pakistan’s territorial and economic difficulties. I think that the tortured appearance of Mr. Jinnah was an indication that, in these final months of his life, he was adding up his own balance sheet. Analytical, brilliant, and no bigot, he knew what he had done.

Like Doctor Faustus, he had made a bargain from which he could never be free. During the heat of the struggle he had been willing to call on all the devilish forces of superstition, and now that his new nation had been achieved the bigots were in the position of authority. The leaders of orthodoxy and a few “old families” had the final word and, to perpetuate their power, were seeing to it that the people were held in the deadening grip of religious superstition.


Friday, September 1, 2017

Pakistan Census 2017

Provisional census results put Pakistan’s population at 207.774 million

Shown below are the Pakistan census results over the years (the dots) and the low(blue), red(high) and constant-fertility(green) variants of the United Nations population projects for Pakistan made in 2012.

 
 Pakistan's annual population growth rate is said to be 2% - 2.4%.
(2% comes from the Google compilation of data as the rate in 2016; 2.4% is the growth rate averaged from 1998 to 2017.)

At a 2% growth rate, and at 207.774 million in 2017, Pakistan in 2020 will be 220.5 million strong. This is above the constant-fertility variant of the 2012 UN population projection.


The 2012 UN table is here:
Low variant High variant Constant-fertility variant
Year Value Year Value Year Value
1950 37542 1950 37542 1950 37542
1955 41109 1955 41109 1955 41109
1960 45920 1960 45920 1960 45920
1965 51993 1965 51993 1965 51993
1970 59383 1970 59383 1970 59383
1975 68483 1975 68483 1975 68483
1980 80493 1980 80493 1980 80493
1985 95470 1985 95470 1985 95470
1990 111845 1990 111845 1990 111845
1995 127347 1995 127347 1995 127347
2000 144522 2000 144522 2000 144522
2005 158645 2005 158645 2005 158645
2010 173593 2010 173593 2010 173593
2015 187919 2015 191378 2015 192422
2020 200540 2020 210189 2020 213758
2025 211629 2025 229589 2025 237213
2030 221103 2030 247779 2030 261599
2035 228766 2035 264967 2035 287169
2040 234396 2040 281781 2040 314904
2045 237695 2045 298374 2045 345569
2050 238538 2050 314272 2050 379242
2055 237045 2055 328856 2055 415670
2060 233311 2060 341769 2060 454747
2065 227493 2065 353298 2065 496968
2070 219755 2070 363895 2070 543245
2075 210376 2075 373869 2075 594497
2080 199757 2080 383325 2080 651358
2085 188372 2085 392285 2085 714296
2090 176629 2090 400837 2090 783759
2095 164873 2095 409175 2095 860368
2100 153363 2100 417464 2100 944843

Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Pakistan population projections

The preliminary count of population from all the land areas controlled by Pakistan as per the abandoned Pakistan census of 2011 was 197 million, per leaked preliminary figures.

In 2017, a census was conducted and the results were to be released July 31st or so.  However, after Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had to resign over corruption charges, the release of the census figures is in doubt, it may be November.   What we know of the census is

Census Coordinator Habibullah Khattak told BBC {Urdu} in an interview that the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) {had completed the census process and that} the country’s population can be between 210 to 220 million

The last completed census of Pakistan was in 1998, which showed a population of 130.9 million.

The chart below shows population projections from the United Nations from 2012, plus the Pakistan actual figures up to 1998, and the 2011 and 2017 census leaks.  The 2017 range of 210-220 million is shown as two dots.

As is dismaying clear, Pakistan continues to range above the constant fertility population projection.



Sunday, May 28, 2017

Pakistan Census 2017 - population 210-220 million

The data gathering for Pakistan's census 2017 has completed; the first official numbers are expected by July.  However back in 2011-12, the data was gathered, a preliminary figure of 192 million was rumored, and then the census was abandoned.  So it remains to be seen if this census will be more successful.

Already, the news is  "Initial estimates after Census 2017 put population at 21-22 crores", i.e., 210-220 million.   The Pakistan Economic Survey 2016-17 from the Finance Ministry of Pakistan puts the population of Pakistan at 199.71 million.

The 2015 United Nations projections with various assumptions give the following estimates for Pakistan's population in 2017:

Variant                          Population
Low                               196.217 million
Medium                         196.744 million
High                               197.272 million
Constant Fertility          197.315 million

Another way of looking at it is that per the constant fertility projection, Pakistan was to reach 214 million in 2020.  So the rumors today, like in 2012, suggest that the official numbers are a gross underestimate.

PS: 




Sunday, February 16, 2014

No census for Pakistan?

The Express Tribune reports:

LAHORE: The ruling Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) is caught between a rock and a hard place. Despite its eagerness to reap political dividends from holding the long-delayed sixth census, the ruling party has decided against conducting the population count for fear of unrest following its results. The country’s fifth and last census was carried out in 1998.

Sources privy to the February 10 meeting of the Council of Common Interests revealed that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif dropped the most critical feature of the council’s agenda after consultation with stakeholders. It was learnt by The Express Tribune that no major political party expressed willingness to have the population census. The ruling party asked Nawaz to defer the exercise to avoid ‘negative repercussions’.

The statistics division put the population census on the CCI’s agenda, but Nawaz issued directions to drop it for an indefinite period when almost all participants of the meeting requested a postponement to avoid political and national turmoil till a new mechanism is developed.

Sunday, April 7, 2013

N.W.F.P. election results 1946

Always check the facts when dealing with Pakistani liberals.

In this article on pakteahouse.net,  it is claimed
Dr Khan Sahib became the premier after the 1946 election on the basis of 30 members in a House of 50. Out of these 30 members, 12 were Hindu MLAs and 16 were Muslim MLAs on Muslims seats (not 19 as Bangash claims repeatedly).
A little bit later, the article tells us that the Jamiat Ulema-i-Hind, an ally of the Congress Party (which is correct).

In "Muslims, Nationalism and the Partition: 1946 Provincial Elections in India" (1998) , Sho Kuwajima provides the party-wise results (page 230) : Congress 30, Jamiat-ul-Ulema 2, Akali 1, Muslim League 17.

Since the Jamiat Ulema-i-Hind was an ally of the Congress Party, it means that Dr Khan Sahib became the premier after the 1946 election on the basis of 32 members (I don't yet know about the Akali (Sikh) member).

Page 231 of the same book tells us of the Muslim seats, Congress won 19, the Muslim League 17, and the Jamiat-ul-Ulema won 2.

Thus of the Congress 30, 19 were Muslim exactly as Bangash claims repeatedly, and 11 were non-Muslim.

----
Whenever these elections are mentioned, we should note that the total electorate in the 1946 elections was 41,075,839.  The estimated population of India in 1945 was 299,621,000.  Sho Kuwajima estimates that "the proportion of the total electorate to all the population of the same age group may be roughly less than 28 per cent."

PS: Here is one of the articles of Bangash that is perhaps the source of the argument.








Wednesday, December 12, 2012

The state of Pakistani population statistics

The state of Pakistani official statistics is interesting.

After a story earlier in the year, about preliminary results from the Pakistan census 2011,  showing the population to be 192+ million, there is nothing further.

The Economic Survey of Pakistan 2011-12
http://www.finance.gov.pk/survey_1112.html

gives a figure for the population of Pakistan, 2011, as 177 million.
Their source is:
National Institute of Population Studies, Planning & Development Division, June 2010

Trying to chase that down, I find another survey, where the source for the 177 million is given as:
"P&D, Division, National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS), CIA Fact Book".
( http://www.infopak.gov.pk/EconomicSurvey/12-Population.pdf )

Their official publication depends on the CIA fact book!!!!

The last actual survey from NIPS appears to be from 2007.
( http://nips.org.pk/ )

This also appears to be the case with the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.
http://www.pbs.gov.pk/population_publications

Anyway, the CIA Fact Book has in the meantime been updated.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html
Pakistan's population is:
190,291,129 (July 2012 est.)

Thursday, August 16, 2012

Bangash: Ghosts of Partition

Yaqoob Khan Bangash, Chairperson of the History Department at Forman Christian College Lahore ,  writes in the Tribune

Every country’s Independence Day is a defining moment in its history. The events of the day are the culmination of years of struggle and the day hearkens to a new beginning. The same is true for Pakistan, except that we have yet to move on from our ‘1947’ moment. This is not because historians keep writing about it but that in our collective memory, we still have to reconcile with the events of 1947 and move forward. Let me highlight just a few aspects.

Friday, March 30, 2012

Census: Preliminary : Pakistan population > 192M

pakistan-population
(Click on the image for a larger version)
Sources of data:
http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm
http://www.pap.org.pk/statistics/population.htm#tab1.3
and below.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-13-13514-Population-shoots-up-by-47-percent-since-1998

That Pakistan's population is 192+ million is supposedly the preliminary count from the 2011 census.  The previous census was in 1998, when the population was 131 million.    If these figures are correct (but every figure from Pakistan needs to be taken with a degree of skepticism), the experts been greatly mis-estimating Pakistan's population growth rate.

For instance, the World Bank lists for Pakistan, Population, total (2010, estimated) 173,593,383.

The UN estimates were:


           Year       Value
1995  127,347,000
2000 144,522,000
2005 158,645,000
2010 173,593,000
2015 189,648,000

and so on. 
 http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm
There are low, medium, high, and constant fertility population projections available there for all countries, including Pakistan.  Even in the high projection, Pakistan reaches 191 million only in 2015.

The constant fertility projection is as follows, which means that fertility in Pakistan can only be increasing - i.e., more surviving children per woman.

Year  Pop('000s)
1995    127347
2000    144522
2005    158645
2010    173593
2015    192422
2020    213758
2025    237213
2030    261599
2035    287169
2040    314904
2045    345569
2050    379242
 


Thursday, January 12, 2012

Some letters of Sardar Patel

Sardar Patel’s daughter, Maniben Patel, deposited his papers with the Navajivan Trust, Ahmedabad. Around 1970 Maniben Patel decided that it was time to make public Sardar Patel’s correspondence. The Navajivan Trust brought in Durga Das, former Chief Editor of the Hindustan Times, as editor, and ten volumes of correspondence, covering the period 1945-1950 were published.

Volume III, Chapter IV contains letters related to the Cabinet Mission Plan. Some of those are reproduced here.  I don't think any commentary is needed, because Sardar Patel's point of view is expressed very clearly.

Monday, November 14, 2011

About Afghan and Pakistani textbooks

It is true that the University of Nebraska, Omaha, was the conduit of US funds to the Education Center for Afghanistan in Peshawar, Pakistan, between September 1986 and June 1994. It is true that the Afghan mujahideen authored textbooks, in Dari and Pashto, for primary school glorifying violence and the University did not object. It is true that even though these books were redacted to remove all violent material in 1992, they continued to be available in Afghanistan.

However, if this following is the source of this information,
"A" Is for Allah, "J" Is for Jihad Author(s): Craig Davis Source: World Policy Journal, Vol. 19, No. 1 (Spring, 2002), pp. 90-94
, available on scribd and elsewhere: http://www.scribd.com/doc/54934790/A-is-for-Allah-J-is-for-Jihad,
then when Pervez Hoodbhoy writes, e.g.,

CIA funds went to buy advertisements inviting hardened and ideologically dedicated men to fight in Afghanistan, and a $50 million U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) grant, administered by the University of Nebraska, Omaha, paid for textbooks that exhorted Afghan children "to pluck out the eyes of their enemies and cut off their legs." These were approved by the Taliban for use in madrassas (Islamic schools) and are still widely available in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.
it is wrong in that:

1. The textbook that exhorted Afghan children to pluck out the eyes of their enemies and cut off their legs, dates from 1970, during the reign of King Zahir Shah.
2. The textbooks with the other violent stuff were available in Kabul in May 2000, apparently pirated from the original US-sponsored texts, printed in Peshawar.
3. It is not clear that the textbooks were available in anything but Dari and Pashto. (Urdu would be the main medium of instruction in Pakistan.) Therefore "widely available in Pakistan" is both not in Craig Davis' text, nor is it terribly significant, even if true.

Thursday, September 8, 2011

From the First Constituent Assembly

From here:

This speech was delivered by Mr. Sris Chandra Chattopadhya in opposition to Objectives Resolution, in Constituent Assembly of Pakistan on 12 March 1949.

Saturday, July 9, 2011

Pakistan's admission to the United Nations

Pakistan was admitted to the United Nations on September 30, 1947. Legally, independent India is seen as the successor state to British India, and Pakistan as the new creation. So India is seen as having participated in the founding of the United Nations.

After the Security Council unanimously recommended the admission of Yemen and Pakistan to the UN, the General Assembly took up the resolution; and Afghanistan was the only nay-sayer to Pakistan's admission. (The vote was 53-1-0).  India welcomed Pakistan's admission; and I don't know why that vote doesn't put to rest the perpetual Pakistani paranoia that the Congress-led  Government of India wanted to undo Partition.

The UN website carries details of the resolution and accompanying speeches.


Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Pakistaniyat

SSridhar on BRF:
One of Pakistan’s best known historians, Prof. K.K.Aziz, in his book, “Murder of History” has the following to say of a Pakistani propensity:

Almost every Muslim of any importance claimed, and still claims today, in his autobiography reminiscences, memoirs, journal and bio data, that his ancestors had come from Yemen, Hejaz,* Central Asia, Iran, Ghazni, or some other foreign territory. In most cases, this is a false claim for its arithmetic reduces the hordes of local converts (to Islam) to an insignificant number. Actually, it is an aftermath and confirmation of Afghan and Mughal exclusiveness. It is also a declaration of disaffiliation from the soil on which the shammers have lived for centuries, and to which in all probability, they have belonged since history began. If all the Siddiquis, Qureshis, Faruqis, ... have foreign origins and their forefathers accompanied the invading armies, or followed them, what happens to the solemn averment that Islam spread peacefully in India? Are we expected to believe that local converts, whose number must have been formidable, were all nincompoops and the wretched of the earth—incapable over long centuries of producing any leaders, thinkers, or scholars?

Reading about the genome sequencing and the unique genetic markers that are said to have been found to identify inner-most Pakistaniyat, I was somehow reminded of the above.  
What he is referring to is this news that Pakistan has sequenced its first genome:


“Our nation is a mix of a lot of races,” said Prof. Dr M Iqbal Choudhary, who heads the project. “Pakistanis are like a “melting pot” ie a mix of Mughals, Turks, Pashtuns, Afghans, Arabs, etcetera.”
{No Indian component?} 

“According to the researchers, the newly sequenced Pakistani genome has uncovered a multitude of Pakistan-specific sites which can now be used in the design of large-scale studies that are better suited for the Pakistani population,” said Dr Choudhary, who is the director of the International Centre for Chemical and Biological Sciences at Karachi University."

Saturday, May 14, 2011

Lieven: Pakistan and Taliban

In his narration of events in Afghanistan, Lieven mentions the Taliban and the Northern Alliance; he fails to mention Pakistan's support of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. 
Wiki: From 1992 to 1996 the warring factions destroyed most of Kabul and killed thousands of people, most of them civilians during the Afghan civil war. All the different parties participated in the destruction, but Hekmatyar's group was responsible for most of the damage, because of his practice of deliberately targeting civilian areas.[29] Hekmatyar is thought to have bombarded Kabul in retaliation for what he considered its inhabitants' collaboration with the Soviets, and out of religious conviction. He once told a New York Times journalist that Afghanistan "already had one and a half million martyrs. We are ready to offer as many to establish a true Islamic Republic."[30] His attacks also had a political objective: to undermine the Rabbani government by proving that Rabbani and Massoud were unable to protect the population.
The above was during the period that Pakistan backed Hekmatyar [especially see document 29 ** (PDF)].

Lieven:
Incidentally, it is worth pointing out that even entirely secular members of the Pakistani establishment do not see the Afghan Taleban as morally worse than the Taleban's old enemies in the Afghan Northern Alliance leaders, with whom the West has in effect been allied since 2001.  Their atrocities and rapes in the 1990s helped cement Pathan support for the Taleban.
----------
**
(Summary of document 29:
This summary details recent events in Afghanistan and the role of Pakistan in supporting the Taliban movement. It describes how Pakistan preferred to groom incompetent commanders such as Gulbuddin Hekmatyar for leadership positions in Afghanistan who would then be reliant upon Pakistan. The failure of supporting Hekmatyar, which "effectively saw the lebanonization of Afghanistan," caused the Pakistanis to introduce the Taliban. The account notes that "Pakistan has lost every war it has ever fought." The cable also notes that "it must be a deeply troubling period for General (Musharraf) in Pakistan, who is asked to help hunt down the culprits that he helped to establish," and ends with a summary of the al-Qaeda agenda, the Pakistani agenda, and the death of Ahmad Shah Masoud in the context of the downing of the twin towers.
)

Saturday, January 8, 2011

Gauba on the Sikhs

K.L. Gauba, Consequences of Pakistan, 1946:

The Problem of Khalistan

But the foregoing table is only a faint indication of the problem involved. A separation of the Ambala Division from Punjab would mean the division of Sikhs of the Punjab into two provinces.

Are the Sikhs willing to be so divided ?

Sunday, August 1, 2010

Some census information

Since this is important for the joint electorate + reservations issue:

Undivided India
Percent of Total Population in Each Religion 1881-1941

                  Hindu    Muslim

1881              78.09    19.97
1891              74.24    20.41
1901              72.87    21.88
1911              71.68    22.39
1921              70.73    23.23
1931              70.67    23.49
1941              69.46    24.28

From Davis Kingsley, The Population of India and Pakistan, ~1951.

Saturday, July 31, 2010

Congress response to the Delhi Muslim Proposals

Source: The Indian Quarterly Register vol 1 (1927)
New Digital Library of India.

Summary of the Proceedings of the Working Committee which met at Taj Mahal Hotel, Bombaby, 15th May 1927 and the following days.